🔗 Share this article

Within the widespread uncertainty surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, a single fact remains evident – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the recent overnight operation witnessed its first major military attack on South American land. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” the President stated.

The move to assault another state and abduct its leader – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other parts of the leadership-stricken government are considerably more radical.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is converting it into a renegade nation.

He holds the view that the US’s might enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came lacking any form of UN approval or congressional approval; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Set aside the message this sends to global powers like Russia and China, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will surely embolden additional military gambits.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

Few believe the pretext that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is propelled by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as domestic popularity wanes.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. World leaders may live to repent if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.