A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
