Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.
Significant Obstacles in the Selection Procedure
Multiple members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an offensive online group.