‘The Situation is Dire’: Conflict on Iran Tightens India's Cooking-Gas Stock.

The repercussions of a military engagement being fought nearly 3,000km away are now being felt in India's kitchens.

As aerial attacks on Iran disrupt energy transports through the key maritime chokepoint, supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are dwindling across India, forcing restaurants to shorten food lists, shorten hours and in some cases close completely.

Social media is filled with video clips showing queues outside LPG distributors across Indian urban and rural areas as anxieties over fuel supplies escalate. Restaurant kitchens appear the worst hit: the biggest crunch is in food service establishments.

"Conditions are critical. Cooking gas simply isn't available," says a spokesperson of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most eateries run either on business-grade gas tanks or piped gas, and the shortages are now being noticed across the country. "A lot of restaurants have ceased operations - some in Delhi, many in the south. People are switching to solid fuels and induction stoves to keep their operations going."

Regional Impact

In a financial hub, accounts say up to a 20% of eateries are already fully or partly shut as business fuel stocks dwindle. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some establishments say their cylinder inventory have dwindled with scarce alternatives. "We can only make coffee and no other dishes - it is extremely difficult. Operations will be impacted," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

Restaurant managers are scrambling to adapt. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are skipping midday meals and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are fluctuating as supplies ebb and flow. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers observe a spike in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are selling out quickly.

Authority's View

Yet, the government maintains there is sufficient stock.

India has more than a vast number of domestic LPG users and authorities say stocks are being reallocated to households as geopolitical strain from the regional hostilities affect energy markets.

About a majority of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about nine out of ten of those shipments pass through the key maritime route, the vital passage now significantly disrupted by the conflict.

The petroleum ministry says that it directed refineries to maximise LPG output for domestic use, enhancing domestic production by about a quarter. Commercial stock is being reserved for critical services such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"A degree of anxious stocking and hoarding has been caused by false reports. The standard supply timeline for household cylinders remains about 60 hours," says a government spokesperson.

Widening Concern

Now the concern is extending beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of scooters outside a petrol pump. "Concern is genuine," the caption reads.

According to data from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be premature.

India imports 90% of its crude oil. Around 50% of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the deficit could be partly made up by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a industry commentator.

Based on vessel tracking and industry information, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, lessening India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The primary concern is cooking gas, analysts say.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through the Strait.

Refineries can tweak operations to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only lift domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be moderately reduced through diversification. Fuel availability remains largely sufficient. LPG availability is the real variable to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the panic on the ground is not just tight supply but erratic supply chains - and the familiar spectre of panic buying.

An industry representative states exploitative practices.

"Retailers are taking advantage of the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and auctioned off."

For now, India's energy imports may be cushioned by global trade flows. But in restaurants across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next cylinder.