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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest turnaround receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or merely the most shocking surprise.

Yet the current field is profoundly different. The group of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners fading and recent underperformers improving together. During an typical year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and fun year, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

Below is how the projected vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a typical year!

Where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an early hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still